Reflections on US election 2024

I'm no expert in US politics but do try to pay attention (largely aided by the 538 politics podcast. I always thought the result would be close but talked myself round to a rosier view of how it would pan out after the Selzer Iowa poll and reporting that late-deciders were breaking for Harris. I was more aware of a potential Trump victory, and was not as shocked as I was in 2016, particularly given the close result in 2020 and the tight polling making scenarios where either candidates win a clean sweep of swing states being two of the more likely outcomes.

However, on reflection there were a number of factors I should have given greater consideration. In 2024, and largely since the inflationary shocks of 2022 we have seen elections largely go against incumbent governments. The American election is no exception to this rule, Biden has consistently polled a negative double-digit favourability rating since about May 2023 and perceptions of the economy are stubbornly in the "getting worse" box. That is a very tough context for any Democrat to run against and whilst I thought Biden dropping out was absolutely the right thing to do it was always going to be difficult for the literal Vice President of this administration to meaningfully move the dial with an electorate who were not feeling an improving economy. I also did not give enough consideration to the fact that voters in America don't seem to mind voting for a Presidential candidate they don't actually like. Donald Trump was a historically unpopular President during his first term and that perception has not softened from 2020-2024 but as we saw in the 2020 election and in 2024 he is a consistent vote winner. In 2024 the perception he was stronger on the economy and on immigration (two top issues of campaign) certainly helped. In hindsight this reminds me of the 2019 UK general election where the Conservatives won a resounding victory over the Labour party under the leadership of Boris Johnson who in the final YouGov poll of 2019 had a -11% approval rating (although this was better than Jeremy Corbyn's who has -50%). Actually approving of a candidate appears less important if that candidate aligns with your preferred stance on issues of the day, something I didn't give enough credence too.

The irony of people voting for candidates that might not approve of highly but might prefer their position on key policy issues is that when people were polled on specific policies from Trump and Harris it was found that Harris's policies actually poll better. This again gives me flash backs from 2019 where famously Corbyn claimed after the result that he had 'won the argument' with polling of individual Labour policies actually being shown to have high support. However, having individual policies with high support didn't save Labour, and it seems didn't save Harris either. In 2019 the public had a very poor perception of Corbyn as a leader and the leading issue of the day was the UK's approach to leaving the European Union, Johnson campaigned under a clear (if empty) slogan of "Get Brexit Done" whilst Labour offered a renegotiated deal and a second referendum. In 2024, inflation and the economy appear to have been the key issue in America with Trump largely favoured as better able to handle the economy. It's easy to draw these comparisons now but it's a good example (albeit just one) of where I should have had a stronger prior for Trump than I did.

There'll undoubtedly be lots to pick over in the coming months as more detailed electoral surveys are done to understand exactly why America voted the way it did. My strong contention is that the cost-of-living and the anti-incumbency tendency were strong contributing factors to the Democrats loss but that Harris likely performed better than if Biden has remained the candidate. Nate Silver offers an interesting comparison to the result in 2004 and the fact the 2nd Bush administration didn't work out so badly for Democrats, ending with the triumphant election of Barack Obama in 2008. Crucially, Trump now owns all the same problems that existed in Biden's in-tray and I would be doubtful of his ability to stick the landing on many of these issues from tariffs to the Middle east.

We will just have to wait and see how this continued stress test of American democracy pans out...